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20 JULY 09
The Middle East Peace process is an unfolding three part
plan.
1) To settle the matters connected with Gaza and Hamas as a necessary prelude to direct Palestinian
Authority talks with Israel.
2) Israeli/Palestinian Authority; Final Status talks.
3) Peace
talks with neighbouring nations, Syria and Lebanon including Hezbullah.
The Hamas Gaza problem is complex and involves:
A) The Gilad Shalit issue and a possible exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hamas.
B)
A longterm Gaza ceasefire.
C) Reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority,
D) A
lifting of the Gaza blockade
Israel has stated that there will be no long term ceasefire, no easing of the
Gaza blockade; and no peace talks with any government that does not recognize Israel as a Jewish state. Further they
have stated that there will be no peace talks with any reconciled Palestinian entity that has within it's government,
any party that does not meet these demands. Israel also demands a disarming of Hamas.
These demands by Israel
are meant to be their conditions for approving any Palestinian reconciliation between Hamas and the PA. After a reconciliation
acceptable to Israel, the main negotiations for a Palestinian state may begin.
Egypt is working very hard to come
up with a comprehensive settlement between: Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and Israel. To do so; they must manage
to produce a Palestinian reconciliation, a Hamas Israeli prisoner exchange and a long term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Since Israel is effectively vetoing any Palestinain reconciliation by it's demands; the issues with Israel and Hamas need
to be settled as a direct part of phase one.
The principle issues here are not about Palestinian reconciliation,
but about the Israeli-Hamas relationship. If Israel's issues with Hamas can be resolved, Israel will remove it's
objections to the reconciliation of Hamas with Fatah. In fact Israel's demands amount to a Hamas surrender to Israel's
goals or be militarily destroyed.
The Hamas-Israeli issues involve the prisoner exchange. Hamas is not really
willing to let Shalit go without a comprehensive deal that would include the ending of the seige. Israel would
also like a comprehensive deal for a long term ceasefire and rrecognition of a Jewish state to go along with the
exchange. Therefore these prisoners (from both sides) have become mired in the overall military/political calculations.
The problem is that any deal would cross most of Hamas' red lines.
To recognize Israel as a
Jewish state would amount to an agreement to give up on any right of return for Palestinian exiles, driven off their land
by Israel. This is an issue better left for final status talks, since even the issue of possible compensation would
be undermined by such a recognition.
To disarm before their own security was guaranteed by an internationally enforced
agreement, would in the view of Hamas; be suicide and also political suicide, since it would be viewed as surrender by the
population. This is unthinkable for Hamas which has hopes of winning the next election.
One wonders
if Israel is trying to sabotage the process by making what are obviously final status matters, conditions for first stage
results. They have been preparing for war for nearly three years, they may not wish to miss this opportunity to destroy
the opposition; once and for all.
ONLY once the situation between Hamas and Israel is resolved can
any Palestinian reconciliation go forward. And only with Palestinian reconciliation will a united PA government emerge
to make a peace agreement.
Egypt has now postponed it's deadlines many times. The next deadline is for
25 Aug. This begins to fall into the time frame of a military opportunity. With temperatures falling, longer nights,
the Asian Monsoon (which could sweep any possible radiation leaks toward India) ending in late Sep and a few months
left before the Lebanon snows.
Hamas should be aware that if they do not give in to a political solution, then
a military one will be found.
Phase Two
The heart and core of the matter is the Hamas-Israel situation.
Once that problem is resolved all other issues can be overcome quickly; except Jerusalem. The issue of Jerusalem goes
beyond politics or the military and is an emotional and religious issue which is likely to require solution from a religious
perspective. Issues like settlements can be solved creatively; by land swaps or long term leases (100-150 years)
which would provide for Palestinian sovereignty and Israeli land use. The issue of repatriation of Palestinian refugees can
be resolved with a Marshall type aid plan, compensation and the granting of citizenship by host nations (hosts could
be relieved of the costs of refugees and also benefit from the foreign aid, making acceptimg refugees permanently more
palatable)
Phase Three
With all other problems solved and the Palestinians signing a Peace Agreement.
Lebanon and Syria still seem unsolvable. The key to Hezbollah and Lebanon is Syria. The key to Syria is
Iran. The key to any solution with Hamas and Gaza is the degree of support they get from Iran.
The
only solution for peace is to eliminate Iranian support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the present government of Syria. Only
when their support is removed and they are standing alone will they be ready to compromise.
The process in Iran
has begun. It cannot be completed as long as the Revolutionary Guard are strong enough to defend the regime. Americans
will not tolerate another war unless there is overwhelming justification for it. The political foundations are being
laid as: a) acting in defence of the will of the Iranian people, b) acting to prevent another holocaust of the Jewish
people; and c) preventing another madman from getting nuclear weapons.
Once these justifications are thoroughly
planted in the public's mind, a triggering event must be activated. Most likely a collapse of the Israeli/Hamas
talks will lead to violence in Gaza, spreading to the North. Followed by a declaration that Iran is fuelling missiles
and a bombardment of the Revolutionary Guard.
This will be a war to resolve issues and to reset the Middle East
for the next generations.
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