THE COMING WAR

PM Netanyahu will now come under intense pressure to extend the construction halt in the West Bank. The freeze extension is the main obstacle to Direct Talks and Abbas is preparing to begin Direct Talks as soon as a freeze extension can be announced.  This may happen by early Sep. The talks and therefore the extension will have a definite time limit.

If Netanyahu extends the freeze his coalition will fold.  Now that the Arab League and the Palestinian National Authority, along with the entirity of the world are against him; his only option to remain PM and to continue with his agenda; is to change the  situation.  He and his coalition have always wanted to overthrow Hamas in Gaza anyway.  Will he receive enough provocation from Hamas or Hezbollah to justify an attack?

Hamas seems to be ready to accommodate him.  While Hamas does not want another invasion of Gaza; they will do almost anything to prevent Direct Talks which would lead to a peace agreement without their input.

After this coming war a new Israeli government will sit down with the Palestinian National Authority; and with the backing of the Arab League will hold serious Direct Peace Talks, 1 Thes 5:3. 

THE ARAB LEAGUE DECISION

The Arab League, under intense pressure from the US has endorsed Direct Peace Talks to begin at the discretion of the Palestinian National Authority.

President Abbas will begin talks as soon as the settlement construction halt is extended; with a specific date for the conclusion of the Direct Talks. A list of conditions has been passed to Obama by the Arab League.

Netanyahu has offered to begin Direct Talks as soon as possible, but still refuses to extend the construction halt.  He will now be the object of intense American pressure. 

Obama is using his support for Israel and the Sunni in the coming war; as leverage to induce the sides to engage in Direct Talks and reach a deal. It is thought that a peace agreement can be reached in a matter of weeks once Direct Talks begin.

If Netanyahu is forced to extend the construction freeze to gain American support against Iran; his coalition will be in grave danger of collapse. 

DIRECT PEACE TALKS

The United States is engaging in a strong push for Direct Peace Talks between the Palestinian National Authority and Israel. President Abbas is to update the Arab League tomorrow; as Israel rejects all three main PNA conditions for Direct Talks.

This comes amidst the preparations for war against Hamas/Hezbollah and Iran.  The Arab Sunni states want Iran reduced in power as does Israel. Both sides are manouvering to get what they can for cooperating with each other on the coming war.

Abbas wants guarentees that the Netanyahu government accepts at the least, what the previous Olmert government agreed to.  They also need an extended construction freeze for political purposes.  If they can't get that, then a very powerful alternate incentive must be made.  The real purpose is not so much Direct Talks as it is the  prevention of a West Bank uprising during a major war; and Sunni support, even if only tacit; for the coming conflict.

 This is a very delicate situation as all sides must get what they need to placate the street and still not appear to be doing so.  Therefore the cloak of Direct Talks is being used. 

From the Israeli American perspective the Sunni states must support the conflict, even if only from behind the scenes.  And the PNA must show enough progress to keep the lid on the West Bank, without appearing to support Israel in any way.  

In the end it will be not only Israel, but the Sunni States and the PNA who will profity from this war.

Iran will be degraded and the regime will be changed by an internal revolution.  With Iran no longer bank rolling Hamas-Hezbollah and undemining the Sunni States; Gaza being returned to the PNA after the defeat of Hamas; and the Hezbollah Lebanon Syrian situation being resolved:  there will be benefits for Israel, the Sunni and the PNA.

However it is politically unsound for the Islamic side to be seen as cooperating with or benefiting from  such an Israeli victory.

IRAN & MIDDLE EAST WAR

Several sources report that President Ahmadinejad has warned Iranians that Israel, backed by the US; is planning to take out Iran's allies in the Middle East, in the next three months. He says that the plan is to weaken Iran by removing her allies.

This man is so convinced of the rightness of his cause and the invincibility of Iran that he just cannot grasp that such a war will spread to Iran and result in a change of regime there.  Instead of working to be on God's side; he is absoultely convinced that God is on his side and that he can do what he wants and succeed because God will back him up; all the way.

 I have heard some ministers in the old WCG say that they could do whatever they wanted and God had to back them up.  That is an utterely false illusion, a great deception.  God is never on anyone's side.  It is up to us to make sure that we are on God's side!

In any case the writing is clearly on the wall for the present Tehran regime.  The opposition leader Mousavi is now calling for a full revolution in Iran. Previously he was unhappy with the President; now he wants a complete change of the system.  To protect himself from arrest for treason; he has couched his call as a warning to the regime that a revolution will come if they do not change.

For three years TheShiningLight has been warning that a new Middle East war will spread to Iran; and that the US will take out enough of the Revolutionary Gurads to set the conditions for s successful revolution and regime change in Iran.

It now appears highly likely that these events will unfold within the next three months.  If not, they will still come very soon now.  These events are definitely heading toward a climax.

A new reality will emerge in the region that will allow for genuine peace talks, 1 Thes 5:3.  At the same time there will be a reset of international financial systems and s serious crisis in the EU that will bring a New Order in Europe. 

For a breakdown of imminent events please see The Middle East in Prophecy  11 July post at our Blog. 

IRAN STRIKE

The Iranian nuclear program has never been shown to be anything but designed to locally produce nuclear fuel for its electricty generating nuclear power station.  In fact, this is right along with the western push for more power from nuclear generators.  Many other nations around the world already have this capacity. 

The real issue has always been a power politics issue of: Who will control the region. Iran will walk in and control Iraq when the US leaves if the issue of regional power cannot be resolved in advance. Further the issue of Israel vs Hamas Hezbollah Syria Iran MUST be resolved to establish any possibility for stability in the Middle East. 

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the major Sunni states have informed Washington that they will feel compelled to seek nuclear weapons if the Iranian program is not stopped.  Believing that Iran will not produce such weapons but will achieve the capability to do so.

The US and Coalition Navies are now using the exercise RIMPAC 2010 to go through a six week long; full dress rehearsal for an Iran war.  They will be ready by 11 Aug.

If the US begins to move toward enforcement of the new sanctions through a Naval blockade; Iran is likely to respond against Israel, through it's proxies.

At this time the Sunni Islamic States have a common cause with Israel and the US. This opportunity will be seized to destroy the present regime in Iran and various Extremist entities; setting the conditions for a genuine dialogue for peace in the region as per 1 Thes 5:3.  

Remember that sudden destruction will come when peace is declared: NOT 3 1/2 years later.  See the 70 Weeks Prophecy page. 

 

Lebanon

Two large fields of natural gas have been discovered off the coasts of Israel and Lebanon.  These fields add to the issues involving Lebanon and Israel, as each side works to ensure its possession of its fair share of this bonanza.

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon is due to release indictments on the Hariri nurder soon. UNIFIL being a UN Force is obligated to arrest the named persons to face the charges.  It has come out that several Hezbollah persons will be named and Hezbollah has declared that they will not permit the arrest of these persons.  This adds to the tensions at this time.

Iran

Debka has published an "exclusive" article for sale; claiming that Obama has decided to enforce the sanctions on Iran with a Naval Armada; and that a naval clash will occur by the end of September.  TheShiningLight has been publishing on this point for some time.

EU authorities are to finalize their own unilateral sanctions on Iran tomorrow.  Iran has declared that they will not permit any sanctions enforcement. 

KOREA

A large American South Korean naval exercise is underway off the coast of Korea.  This is quite likely a warning to the North not to take advantage of the coming Iran situation. 

 

IRAN IRAQ

Months after the election, Iraq has still been unable to form a new government.  The various Iran backed Shia militias are patiently waiting for the bulk of the American forces to leave before making their move.

In preparation for the soming war on Iran the United States has now reneged on the withdrawal of 24,000 more troops by the first of Sep. A further 50,000 are scheduled to remain until the end of 2011.  This has infuriated the Shia militias who are rumored to be angry enough to resume an offensive against American forces in Iraq. Such an Iraqi offensive by the Shia can be expected with any attack on Iran. 

The US cannot withdraw from Iraq until Iran is pacified or Iraq will be integrated into the Iranian coalition with Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.  All that American and Iraqi blood will have been spilled only to hand a gift to Iran.  This is only one of the imperatives for the coming war on Iran.

The US military is working hard to consolidate its forces, harden its remaining bases and prepare for a spillover of the coming war from Iran into Iraq.  Rumors exist that the 24,000 Americans will be designated UN Forces so s to enforce the UN sanctions on Iran. This seems unlikely as any such move would have to be authorized by the Security Council.

Kurdistan trades freely with Iran; and Kurdish oil and refined petroleum products are flowing into Iran.  However Kurdistan is far from the area of Shia concern further southeast. 

There is no way that the unilateral sanctions against Iran by the US and the EU can possibly be effective. Largely due to Russian willingness to provide Iran with it's needs via the Caspean basin; and extensive smuggling along Iran's lengthy borders. 

IRAN NEWS

The Iranian Parliament has passed a law requiring the inspection of the ships of all countries which inspect it's shipping.  Iran has legal control and responsibility for the Straits of Hormuz under International Law; and has the legal right under International Law to conduct safety inspections of all passing ships.

The EU is expected to join the US in announcing new unilateral sanctions on Iran next week. An international coalition armada led by the United States is expected to reach Iran and be prepared to inspect Iranian shipping by the end of August.

Events in Israel/Palestine may well overtake the events going on around Iran; a period of serious confrontation may begin very soon now.

UNITED CHURCH OF GOD NEWS

We have now received 3,457 unique visitors to our Blog on the current UCG crisis. The vast majority from United and the various COG's.

I have posted a very strong message at our Blog today. Up until now I have concentrated on providing news from both sides.  Now I am going to begin adding more Biblical material in an effort to turn all toward Almighty God. 

ISRAEL MILITARY NEWS

Israel  has now been linked up to the American Missile Defense Systems and radars. Hezbollah has moved some 5,000 men right up to the Israeli border as Israel continues its build up on its side of the Lebanese border.  The US is preparing to present a credible military option against Iran; after Russia and others have  chosen to undercut the new unilateral Iran sanctions.  The Rim of the Pacific exercise  is practising to present just such a; real time, short notice response, to a real world crisis.  This armada will be ready by mid August.

Meanwhile the Mubarak meetings with the various sides on Sunday yielded no positive results 

PEACE TALKS
President Abbas is now demanding foreign forces to defend borders as a prerequisite for Direct Talks. He is presenting his conditions to Senator Mitchell who met with him today.

At this time the demand is for NATO troops.  This will change to a more European force due to the over extension of the Americans and the shaking of NATO during the coming war.

GAZA
MK Lieberman is proposing that Israel seal off Gaza and that the EU should accept responsibility for the territory.

Both Hamas and Germany have rejected the plan.

The plan does appear to have the option of implementation once Hamas has been overthrown and restored to the Palestinian Authority.  Foreign forces could then enter Gaza on behalf of the PA to restore and maintain order.

Negotiations are under way to seek the mediation of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton on Gilad Shalit.

KURDS
For two weeks Syrian forces, backed by Turkish drones and aircraft have been attacking the PKK forces within Syria.  It appears that this is a determined effort to drive the PKK out of Syria and deny them a safe haven from any possible Turkish offensive in Iraq.

AS of now; up to 300 PKK have been killed and twice that many captured, their bases have been destroyed and the PKK is on the run.  All Syrian borders in the region have been sealed off to prevent their escape.

In coordination with this; Turkey has launched several air strikes on the PKK within Iraq.  NOTE: The Kurdish areas in Iraq are independent in all but name and formalities.

IRAN
The Russians have come out and admitted that they voted for the Security Council's new Iran sanctions, because of threats that if they did not; there would be war.

The new unilateral  sanctions by the US and EU have the Russians fuming. They see this as a betrayal.  Russia and India along with others have now promised Iran to provide any thing embargoed by the US and EU.  This means that the only measure left to the US-EU is a fullblown naval blockade.

A large exercise is taking place in the Pacific [Rim of the Pacific exercise] to provide an armada for just this purpose. They are expected to be ready by mid August. If this fleet sails toward Iran; then Iran may use its influence on Hamas-Hezbollah to begin hostilities with Israel.

The Middle East has become a powder keg waiting for a match.

UNILATERAL SANCTIONS ON IRAN CHALLENGED BY RUSSIA

Russia has now signed an agreement with Iran to provide any material lost through US unilateral sanctions; and the coming EU sanctions.  India has already signed an energy deal with Iran; Turkey, China and others are considering following suite.

This will complicate the situation and may lead to an East West confrontation crisis when the coming Middle East war breaks out.

The world is cleaving in two over Iran. The US and her allies will be victorious over Iran, but it will be a pyrrhic victory as the EU folds and a “neutral” Europe arises to balance East and West for the sake of peace.  The New Europe will hold the “balance of power” with a roughly equal East and West; and Europe in the middle.  The three parts being equal; Europe will decide whether to move against one side or the other at her own discretion.

As a church state system, she will have the moral high ground to act against what is perceived worldwide as Anglo/American/Israeli imperialistic war mongering.

The huge Islamic population in Europe will guarentee the support of the Islamic world and Turkey; if neutral Europe should be forced to enforce a peace agreement on Israel.

If European Peace Enforcers were to be deployed to Palestine and were to be provoked by the Israeli Extremists. They could act with the support of the entire world; except the Anglo Americans and their client states [Egypt-Ethiopia].

TURKEY
Turkish and EU representatives are meeting over Turkey's application to join the EU. Turkey's application has faced many obstacles and has been a real up and down process.  The present difficulty is to begin to cordinate Turkey's foreign policy with the EU.  This is highly complicated by the recent Gaza situation and the strong support of Israel by certain key European governments.

The coming regional war is very likely to result in the changing of some European governments and a severe shaking of the EU.  The New Order arising from this shakeup will be a church state union similar to the Holy Roman Empire.  This will not be conducive to Turkish participation in the new European entity.

Still with Iran's power being degraded and her allies defeated; Turkey will assume leadership of much of the Islamic world.  The many millions of Muslims in Europe will gender to a positive relationship between Turkey and the New Order in Europe.

When Israel is unable to implement the coming peace agreement due to her own extremists; European Peace Enforcers will act against Israel. The Islamic world along with Turkey will cheer at the defeat of Israel; and will support the New Europe in any way that they can. Psalm 83

NAVAL EXERCISE
The Rim of the Pacific exercise is underway and is scheduled to end on 11 Aug. This huge exercise involving 34 ships, 5 submarines and 150 aircraft is being held to prepare for a "short notice real world crisis".  The exercise held between Hawaii and Guam places a huge armada only ten-twelve days from Iran.

At this time an extremely high 62% of US Naval vessels are underway. Usually less than 40% of US ships are underway.

The EU is expected to  formally announce its new unilateral sanctions in the next few weeks; after which the US and EU are expected to announce enforcement measures.

With serious pressure mounting throughout the Middle East and against Iran; the Coalition Navy will be prepared.

MIDDLE EAST WAR PREPARATIONS
Israel has massed forces on the Lebanon border as Hezbollah is digging in, in South Lebanon.

The EU is expected to announce unilateral sanctions comparable to US unilateral sanctions on Iran soon.

President Ahmadinejad of Iran is working on a visit to Beirut as soon as possible to hold a council of war and show solidarity between Iran and her allies Lebanon/Syria/Hezbollah/Hamas. This will be his first visit to Beirut: such meetings are usually held in Damascus.

I sincerely hope that Syria is getting cold feet and keeps out of this conflict.

The US is expected to announce that they intend to enforce these unilateral sanctions after the EU comes on board. 

ISRAEL NEWS
The Eiland Report on the military investigation into the Flotilla fiasco has been delivered to the government and will be publicaly released soon.

LEBANON
After the 06 war the UN sent a peace keeping force into South Lebanon with the mandate of neutralizing the area South of the Litani River and excluding Hezbollah from the area.

During the May Israeli Home front exercises, Hezbollah moved about 20,000 men into South Lebanon.  They have been digging in and preparing fortifications. Whenever UNIFIL comes near such activities civilians mass to obstruct them.
 
France has called a meeting of the Security Council which has called for freedom of movement in Lebanon.  Meanwhile Israel last Wednesday released video of Hezbollah in South Lebanon and a target list for one village in the area.

Of course everyone knows that both sides have such lists. The importance of these announcement is that the public threats have risen sharply; even as UNIFIL is being prevented from fulfilling its mandate and is becoming less relevant each day.

Hezbollah has responded by going on alert and announcing that they have a target list of their own.

Today some 5,000 Lebanese soldiers entered South Lebanon to assist UNIFIL in its duties.  It should be understood that Hezbollah has a key part in the Lebanese government; and effectively controls these soldiers.  They will be more of a watchdog on UNIFIL than an assistance. Everything that UNIFIL does will be reported in Beirut and find its way to Hezbollah.

EILAND COMMITTE
The Israeli military is due to release its conclusions regarding their investigation into the Flotilla Raid tomorrow.

Calls are already going out for the resignation of the Navy Commander.  The panel is expected to come to the same conclusions that I posted at the time of the Raid; and the Naval Commanders will be held to blame.

IRAN
India has now joined China and Russia in condemning the American unilateral sanctions against Iran.

India is set to hold an Economic Cooperation summit with Iran.

A clear divide is emerging between East and West over Iran.  In the meantine issues involving Georgia are still simmering.  Will Russia use American distraction during the coming war on Iran to settle matters concerning Georgia?

LEBANON
France has called a Security Council meeting over several incidents involving UNIFIL in Lebanon.  Lebanon itself is now sending a brigade to aid UNIFIL by accompanying them on their rounds and protecting them from civilian interference.

Recently some civilians have attempted to interfere with UNIFIL by throwing stones and eggs ect.

On Wednesday Israel released information on Hezbollah activity in southern Lebanon and a list of targets for air strikes.  Hezbollah is in a panic and has gone to high alert. They claim the Israeli information is entirely false and is designed to justify an attack. Hezbollah is excluded from southern Lebanon and a public presence could be considered a ceasefire violation.

EGYPT
President Mubarak is reported to have cancer of the esophagus. For the past two years the dictator's son has been groomed to replace his father; with the support of the Army and Intelligence communities.

PEACE TALKS
President Obama has been pushing the Palestinian Authority to enter Direct Talks with Israel.  President Abbas, who is believed to have cancer himself; is unable to comply without a declared total consttruction freeze extension on the West Bank and Jerusalem. He is forced to stand his ground by the PA and the Arab League; and the political realities of the Palestinian street.

It appears that the move by Obama and Netanyahu to call for Direct Talks without meeting the longterm conditions set in the Roadmap are unlikely to succeed.

 

DIRECT PEACE TALKS
Prime Minister Netanyahu is now calling for immediate Direct Talks on peace. That makes it apparent that his compromise on a settlement construction freeze has been approved by Obama.

Israel will offer a continued ban on construction in contested areas outside of the main Jewish settlement blocs. This is being presented to the Palestinian Authority as an extension of the freeze; and presented to the coalition partners as an end to the freeze in Jewish areas. 

Time will tell, as to whether this compromise will fly with the concerned parties.

OBAMA/NETANYAHU MEETING
This meeting focused primarily on security issues including plans for Iran.  The public announcement called for Direct Peace Talks, but made no mention of the construction freeze issue.

It appears that the agenda has, for the present; moved from peace to war.  This will provide the coalition with a little more time.  In preparation for this war, Obama has spoken of the unbreakable bond between Israel and the United States.

Very little is being said publicly about the meeting's content. As the end of the freeze on 26 Sep approaches; pressure on the peace  front will resume. In the meantime full attention must now be paid to war preparations.  Peace talks are pointless until the Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran issue is decisively resolved.
 
Iran
Iran has postponed any nuclear talks until September and laid down certain conditions for any talks to begin. With the EU about to announce unilateral samnctions of its own these questions by Iran appear to have been answered already. 

Iran is expected to announce further nuclear achievements in Sep including the start up of the Bushier power station.

SITE NEWS
Since the United Church of God is the largest COG Group; people accross the COG Constellation are keenly interested in the current UCG crisis. Because of our coverage of that story, well over 1,000 unique visitors have now come to our Blog.  Many by Google search and many others via email links. Many of these have made repeat visits and have also linked through to our other sites.

Of these visitors some 46% have viewed the Home page of posts and left.  54% have viewed more than enough pages to have seen the entire site.  Which will give them something to really think about.

As most of these people have family and friends, we are reaching many people in the various COG Groups. More can be expected to come as this crisis unfolds and the word spreads.

These people need our prayers and encouragement that all will work out for the good of God's people.  Right now it is absolutely vital that ALL turn back to their God with enthusiastic zeal and stop rationalizing the watering down of doctrine and the abuse of the Sabbath.

Today's post will be on the subject of the amount of damage done and the expected changes in doctrine.
 
COG NEWS
Robert Thiel [COGWRITER] has come out and published the 3 1/2 years of peace, 3 1/2 years or war tribulation theory of the 70 Weeks prophecy. He then goes on to try and use the views of ancient Catholic and Protestant writers to support his position. Even if they did support that position; it would be evidence of the error of this position rather than proof of accuracy.

1  The writings of Daniel were sealed and hidden until the end, Dan 12. Therefore no statement made hundreds or even twenty years ago could possibly be correct.

2  Spiritual things are spiritually discerned; therefore no commandment breaking person can ever understand the things of God.
 
3  We kmow that there WILL NOT be 3 1/2 years of peace because God's word tells us so. For at the very declaration of peace; sudden [immediate] destruction will come, 1 Thes 5:3.

As for when this will come; I have consistently pointed out that the tribulation will begin when all of the Biblical signs are present; not before and not later.  In light of this I have pointed out the EARLIEST POSSIBLE date for the Abomination to be set up; during each year of this effort.  If this is the year; the abomination [final false prophet] will be set up in early Oct. If this is NOT the year; he will not be set up. 

This will happen at God's appointed time! Those who rely on the speculations and traditions of commandment rejecting men; are the children of darkness 1 Thes 5; and will be taken by surprise.  Those who stand on God's Word and stand on the Holy Scriptures, looking for God's signs are the children of the light and will not be taken by surprise.

For a list of some of these signs.

For more on the 70 Weeks Prophecy; visit this page at our Blog!

Understand the 70 Weeks Prophecy!

NEWS
The very important Obama-Netanyahu meetings are now underway.

ISRAELI COALITION CRISIS
President Obama is expected to ask Prime Minister Netanyahu to extend the construction freeze and enter Direct Talks with the Palestinians tomorrow.

All of the coalition parties except Labour held an emergency meeting today and agreed to oppose any construction freeze extension. 

The right wing parties are supporting the immediate resumption of construction in the West Bank and Jerusalem: where 2,700 units are expected to be started as soon as the freeze ends.

Meanwhile the Labour party is demanding that Chairman Barak insist that Netanyahu freeze construction and move to Direct Talks.  They want Barak to leave the coalition if he fails to influence the PM toward a serious effort at peace.

Netanyahu is expected to offer a partial freeze compromise to Obama and Abbas in the hope that he can maintain his coalition. He is to also engage in a series of policy interviews and speeches while in the US. 

The next few days will not only be important for the Israeli coalition; they may also be very important for the immediate future of the peace talks.

A letter from some of the Latin American ministry in response to the Luker video has been published on its own page; directly under the Walker Appeal letter on the Nav Tabs at our Blog!  To see what United's Latin American church in Mexico thinks of the Luker video visit our Blog!

They are VERY upset.